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REPORT # Nano-543 PUBLISHED June 06, 2012
BIPV Roofing Markets - 2012
CATEGORIES :
  • Renewable Energy
  • SUMMARY

    The objective of this report is to pinpoint the opportunities that are likely to emerge in the BIPV roofing market in the next few years and show how these may be best developed given the changing market circumstances described above.  The potential for technological improvement, which is also described above, is also taken into consideration in this opportunity analysis. Another goal of this report is to examine current and future strategies in the emerging BIPV roofing market.  Because of the radically altered strategic situation for BIPV roofing that has emerged in the past few years, we think that entirely new strategies will be required for firms in this space.  Thus, we have made the required strategic changes for the future BIPV roofing sector a key theme of this report.

    Definitions of BIPV Roofing

    The scope of this report is a fairly broad, we have included all products that might make a reasonable claim to being integrated.  This includes simple laminates all the way up to fully- integrated products of the kind we mention above.  Definitions are important here.  In some articles and reports about the BIPV sector, it is assumed (sometimes tacitly) that the "I" in BIPV stands for "fully integrated." 

    Under this definition, any BIPV market is made to seem very futuristic, which we think is unfortunate since it leaves out of the equation the considerable amount of effort that has gone into developing the BIPV concept for well over a decade.  Indeed, this is especially true of the BIPV roofing segment that has existed (albeit in a primitive form) for almost two decades.

    The broad approach that we take in this report acknowledges that there is already a substantial market around the world that is willing to buy into solar panels that are disguised in roofing in some way.  This is important as it illustrates that whole idea of BIPV roofing is not just another technological flash in the pan.  We have taken account of the widely varying functionality of early BIPV roofing and future fully-integrated BIPV roofing by providing separate discussions and forecasts of different segments of the BIPV roofing market.

    Forecasts and Strategies

    Our forecasts in this report are provided in both value and volume terms.  Volume shipments are forecasted in terms of area covered and MW shipped.  This reflects the hybrid nature of the BIPV roofing.  It is at once a roofing product (where area covered is the relevant measure) and a solar product (where MW is the relevant measure).  Breakouts in the forecasts are provided by type of building, type of BIPV roofing and key materials used.  In addition, we project the nations and regions that will generate the most revenues for BIPV roofing and the breakouts of the BIPV roofing market by retrofit and new construction. 

    In addition, as is usual with NanoMarkets reports of this type, we have included assessments of the strategies now being deployed by BIPV roofing firms. In this analysis, we are particularly concerned with understanding how BIPV roofing firms plan to cope with the current "crisis" in the PV industry.

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS
    Executive Summary
    E.1 BIPV Roofing as a Way Out of the PV Industry Slump
    E.1.1 The Business Case for BIPV Roofing and the Future of Chinese Competition
    E.2 Prospects and Opportunities for BIPV Roofing Products
    E.2.1 BIPV Roofing Overlays
    E.2.2 Today's Leading-Edge (Flexible and Rigid) BIPV Products
    E.3 Technology Driven Competition in the BIPV Roofing Market:  An Opportunity for Start-Ups and VCs?
    E.4 The Fragmented Nature of the BIPV Roofing Market and Its Implications
    E.4.1 Does BIPV Roofing Need New Distribution Channels?
    E.4.2 Picking BIPV Roofing Markets by Size
    E.5 Firms to Watch in the BIPV Roofing Space
    E.6 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of the BIPV Roofing Industry
     
    Chapter One:  Introduction
    1.1 Background to this Report
    1.1.1 NanoMarkets' Expectations for Future Trends in BIPV Roofing
    1.1.2 Technical Challenges to BIPV Roofing Technology
    1.1.3 BIPV Roofing and the PV Industry "Crisis"
    1.2 Goal and Scope of this Report
    1.2.1 Definitions of BIPV Roofing
    1.2.2 Forecasts and Strategies
    1.3 Methodology of this Report
    1.4 Plan of this Report
     
    Chapter Two: BIPV Roofing Technology and Products:  Current and Future
    2.1 The Economics of BIPV Roofing
    2.1.1 Cost of Roofing Materials
    2.1.2 Cost Requirement for BIPV Roofing
    2.2 Current and Future BIPV Roofing Products
    2.2.1 BIPV Overlays and Building-Attached PV
    2.2.2 Other Rigid BIPV Roofing Products
    2.2.3 Flexible BIPV Roofing Products
    2.2.4 Monolithically Integrated BIPV Roofing Products
    2.3 Impact on BIPV Roofing of PV Absorber Layer Trends
    2.3.1 Conventional Silicon Materials in BIPV Roofing Markets
    2.3.2 Thin-Film BIPV Roofing:  CIGS and CdTe
    2.3.3 DSC, OPV and BIPV Roofing
    2.4 Key Points Made in this Chapter
     
    Chapter Three:   BIPV Roofing: Drivers, Challenges and Markets
    3.1 The BIPV Roofing Industry:  Why Worry?
    3.1.1 Specialized BIPV Subsidies
    3.1.2 Falling Off the Roof:  Challenges for the Rooftop BIPV Industry in a World of Low Prices and Lower Subsidies
    3.1.3 Will Chinese Suppliers Ultimately Dominate the BIPV Roofing Industry?
    3.2 The Question of Aesthetics
    3.3 Opportunities and Challenges in the Retrofit Market
    3.4  The Role of Builders, Engineers and Architects in the BIPV Roofing Market
    3.4.1 Architects
    3.4.2 General Contractors
    3.4.3 Impact on the BIPV Roofing Market of Building Codes and Standards
    3.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter
     
    Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of BIPV Roofing Markets
    4.1 Forecasting Methodology and Changes from Last Year's Report
    4.1.1 Changes from NanoMarkets' 2011 BIPV Report
    4.1.2 General Forecasting Philosophy
    4.1.3 Macroeconomic Assumptions and Alternative Scenarios
    4.1.4 Pricing Assumptions
    4.1.5 Sources of Information
    4.2 Eight-Year Forecasts of BIPV Roofing by Type of Products
    4.2.1 Forecast of BIPV Roofing's Share of the BIPV and General PV Market
    4.2.2 BIPV Roofing by Product Type
    4.2.3 Overlays
    4.2.4 Other Rigid BIPV Roofing Products
    4.2.5 Flexible BIPV Roofing Products
    4.2.6 Monolithically Integrated BIPV Roofing Products
    4.2.7 Summary of BIPV Roofing Products Market by Type of Product
    4.3 Eight-Year Forecasts of BIPV Roofing by Type of Building
    4.3.1 BIPV Roofing in Commercial, Government and Industrial Buildings
    4.3.2 A Note on BIPV in Single-Family Residential Buildings
    4.4 Eight-Year Forecasts of BIPV Roofing by Region
    4.5 BIPV Roofs by Retrofit versus New Construction
    Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
    About the Author
     
    List of Exhibits

    Exhibit E-1: Firms to Watch in the BIPV Roofing Space 
    Exhibit E-2: Summary of BIPV Products Market 
    Exhibit 1-1: BIPV Roofing Market Value Proposition and its Challenges 
    Exhibit 2-1: Cost of BIPV Systems per Square of Roof Area, 10 Percent Module Efficiency ($) 
    Exhibit 2-2: Peak Power Producible per Square of Roofing 
    Exhibit 2-3: BIPV Roofing Overlays Anticipated Roofing Evolution 
    Exhibit 2-4: Flexible BIPV Roofing:  Product Types 
    Exhibit 2-5: Flexible BIPV Roofing:  Products and Addressable Markets 
    Exhibit 2-6: Advantages and Disadvantages of Major PV Absorber Materials for BIPV Roofing 
    Exhibit 3-1: Aesthetic Advantages and Disadvantages of BIPV Roofing 
    Exhibit 3-2: Major PV Standards that also Apply to BIPV 
    Exhibit 3-3: Common Building Requirements for BIPV 
    Exhibit 4-1: BIPV Roofing:  Share of Worldwide PV and BIPV Markets 
    Exhibit 4-2: BIPV Roofing by Type of Product (MW) 
    Exhibit 4-3: BIPV Roofing Overlay Market 
    Exhibit 4-4: Rigid BIPV Roofing Market
    Exhibit 4-5: Flexible BIPV Roofing Market 
    Exhibit 4-6: Monolithically Integrated BIPV Roofing Market 
    Exhibit 4-7: Summary of BIPV Products Market 
    Exhibit 4-8: Market for BIPV Roofing:  By PV Technology (MW)
    Exhibit 4-9: BIPV Roofing Market by Type of Building ($ Millions) 
    Exhibit 4-10: BIPV Roofing Market by Region ($ Millions) 
    Exhibit 4-11: BIPV Roofing Market by New Construction or Retrofit ($ Millions) 

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