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REPORT # Nano-332 PUBLISHED February 23, 2011
CIGS Photovoltaics Market Opportunities 2011
  • Renewable Energy
    Check the Related Report link on the right for new reports issued since this report was published
    In recent years, CIGS has become a collection of contradictions.  While it has achieved the highest conversion efficiency among the thin-films, its progress toward high volumes has been sluggish.  And while the volume growth of leading companies has been well behind the level of expectations that CdTe has set, dozens of small companies continue to enter the CIGS market, especially in China and Taiwan. Finally, while flexible CIGS PV—especially in the form of BIPV—is widely considered the path for success, there are still concerns about the durability of such flexible products given CIGS’ sensitivity to moisture.

    What will it take for the large manufacturers of CIGS PV to finally approach the Gigawatt range in volume?  And what do the small players stand to gain by entering this crowded field?  What is the value proposition of CIGS that makes it so attractive?  Will CIGS ever make real money, and will investors be available to build the necessary capacity?  These questions are examined and answered in this report.
    This report also analyzes the money-making opportunities for CIGS PV.  These are examined from the perspectives of CIGS PV’s strengths—high performance and flexibility—and its weaknesses, sensitivity to moisture and difficult manufacturing processes.  It takes an honest look at the processes and strategies of the various firms making CIGS and at the markets in which CIGS has unique advantages.

    This report also includes NanoMarkets’ eight-year forecasts of the market for CIGS PV.  These forecasts are broken down by type of application—BIPV, flexible devices, etc.—and by the manufacturing technology used, including deposition technology and flexible vs. rigid manufacturing.  This report is essential reading for firms that manufacture or develop CIGS PV and for everyone interested in future of the PV industry.
    Executive Summary
    E.1 CIGS: What's Keeping It from Higher Volumes?
    E.2 Opportunities for CIGS Firms:  Three Markets for CIGS PV
    E.2.1 CIGS in the Conventional Panels Market
    E.2.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGS
    E.2.3 CIGS Opportunities in Portable Electronics
    E.3 The Business Case for CIGS:  What is Missing?
    E.4 Will There Ever Be High-Volume Printed CIGS?
    E.5 The CIGS Supply Structure:  More Firms, More Nations
    E.5.1 The Growing Number of CIGS Suppliers:  Headed for a Fall?
    E.5.2 CIGS and China:  A Marriage in the Making
    E.6 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of CIGS PV
    Chapter One: Introduction
    1.1 Background to this Report
    1.1.1 CIGS Readies for Its High-Volume Phase
    1.1.2 Hiccups: Haven't We Been Here Before?
    1.1.3 Flexible CIGS: Does This Set CIGS Apart?
    1.1.4 CIGS and BIPV: A Match Made for Rooftops?
    1.1.5 CIGS' Achilles Heel: Lifetimes and Encapsulation
    1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
    1.3 Methodology of this Report
    1.4 Plan of this Report
    Chapter Two: The Supply Side of CIGS PV
    2.1 Parity with Crystalline Silicon Will Mean Higher Margins
    2.2 CIGS Materials: The Indium Elephant in the Room
    2.3 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost
    2.3.1 Conventional Vacuum Deposition
    2.3.2 Printing: What's the Holdup?
    2.3.3 Electrodeposition: A Middle-of-the-Road Alternative
    2.3.4 Roll-to-Roll: Is It Really an Advantage?
    2.4 Other Components of CIGS PV
    2.4.1 Electrodes:  Changing Materials
    2.4.2 CIGS' Special Encapsulation Needs
    2.5 Is There Still Venture Capital for CIGS?
    2.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter
    Chapter Three: CIGS Market Opportunities
    3.1 How Can CIGS Sell Itself?
    3.2 Capitalizing on CIGS' High Performance
    3.2.1 Conventional Module Market Opportunities
    3.2.2 Rigid BIPV Market Opportunities
    3.3 Flexible CIGS: The Key to a High-Growth Market?
    3.3.1 Flexible BIPV Opportunities
    3.3.2 Other Flexible Applications Opportunities
    3.3.3 Is Durability Still an Issue?
    3.4 The Crowded CIGS Market
    3.4.1 Too Many Players?
    3.4.2 Shifting to China and Taiwan?
    3.4.3 Leaders and Strategies
    3.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter
    Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for CIGS PV and Its Materials
    4.1 Forecasting Methodology
    4.1.1 Data Sources
    4.1.2 Changes from Previous Reports
    4.1.3 Scope of Forecast
    4.1.4 Alternative Scenarios
    4.2 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Product Type
    4.2.1 Conventional Panels
    4.2.2 BIPV
    4.2.3 Other Products
    4.3 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Manufacturing Technology
    4.3.1 Forecasts by Rigid vs. Flexible Manufacturing
    4.3.2 Forecasts by CIGS Deposition Method
    4.4 Summary of Forecasts
    Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
    About the Author
    List of Exhibits
    Exhibit E-1: Summary of Forecasts for CIGS PV
    Exhibit 2-1: Printed CIGS Firms
    Exhibit 2-2: Electrodeposited CIGS Firms
    Exhibit 2-3: Recent Funding for CIGS Players
    Exhibit 3-1: CIGS PV Competitors in 2011
    Exhibit 3-2: CIGS PV Manufacturers by Geography: 2011 vs. 2009
    Exhibit 4-1: Conventional CIGS PV Panels ($ Millions)
    Exhibit 4-2: CIGS BIPV Products by BIPV Type ($ Millions)
    Exhibit 4-3: Forecasts of CIGS "Other" Products
    Exhibit 4-4: CIGS PV by Type of Manufacturing ($ Millions)
    Exhibit 4-5: CIGS PV by CIGS Deposition Process ($ Millions)
    Exhibit 4-6: Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions)


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