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- Renewable Energy
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The industry shakeout in CIGS PV has been brutal. In 2010 there were more than 25 companies with plans for over 1 GW of capacity, but to date only Solar Frontier has achieved the goal. As the shakeout continued, there were even questions whether any new capacity would be added beyond the approximately 3 GW that was in place as the CIGS sector faced extreme price pressure from falling silicon based PV. Nonetheless, NanoMarkets believes that while multiple start-ups have either been liquidated or acquired, the remaining few large CIGS players are poised to add significant capacity.
This report will analyze the opportunities that are emerging for CIGS in this very new phase of the solar industry. The report takes a detailed look into the technical evolution of CIGs fabrication and encapsulation and show how this will impact CIGS market expansion and cost reduction. Much of the report is devoted to the opportunities for CIGS in building-integrated PV (BIPV market) and how CIGS flexible modules and price parity with silicon solar panels could considerably improve the revenues generated by CIGS technology in the near future.
This report also includes NanoMarkets’ eight-year forecasts of the market for CIGS PV. These forecasts are broken down by type of application—BIPV, flexible devices, etc.—and by the manufacturing technology used, including deposition technology and flexible vs. rigid manufacturing. This report is essential reading for firms that manufacture or develop CIGS PV and for everyone interested in future of the PV industry.
NanoMarkets has been following the CIGS space since its earliest days and this report provides the latest and most up to date information on the current state of the CIGS and guidance with regard to its future development and growth.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive SummaryE.1 CIGS: Finally Poised to be a Major Force in PV?E.2 Opportunities for CIGS Firms:E2.1 CIGS in the Conventional Panel MarketE2.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGSE2.3 CIGS Opportunities in Portable ElectronicsE.3 The Business Case for CIGS in a Technology Agnostic PV EnvironmentE.4 Will There Ever Be High-Volume Printed CIGS?E.5 CIGS Supply StructureE5.1 The Death March for Startups Continues. Who’s Left?E5.2 The Transition from Startups to Asian MultinationalsE.6 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for CIGS PVChapter 1: Introduction1.1 Background to this Report1.1.1 Industry Consolidation and Shake Out. Are we Done Yet?1.1.2 Enter Fresh Capital. TSMC and Hanergy1.1.3 Higher Efficiency and Flexible Modules. The Path to Market Share for CIGS?1.1.4 BIPV: A Match Made for Rooftops?1.1.5 Reliability and Encapsulation. CIGS’ Achilles Heel?1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report1.3 Methodology of this Report1.4 Plan of this ReportChapter Two: The Supply side of CIGS2.1 Two Keys to Compete with Crystalline silicon: Higher Yield and Lower Production Costs2.2 CIGS Materials: The Indium issue. Will There Ever be Price Stability?2.3 Manufacturing Processes2.3.1 Conventional Vacuum Deposition2.3.2 Electrodeposition2.3.3 Printing. Will it Always be the “Next Big Thing?”2.3.4 Roll to Roll: Is it Really an Advantage?2.4 Other CIGS Specific Materials2.4.1 Electrodes: Changing Materials2.4.2 The Special Encapsulation Needs for CIGS2.5 The Changing Capital Landscape for CIGS Development2.6 Key Points Made in this ChapterChapter Three: CIGS Market Opportunities3.1 How Does CIGS Gain Market Share in a PV Technology Agnostic World Dominated by Silicon?3.2 Flexible CIGS: A High Growth Market where Crystalline Silicon cannot Compete3.2.1 Flexible BIPV Opportunities3.2.2 Other Flexible Application Opportunities3.2.3 Long Term Reliability of Flexible CIGS3.3 Current Market and Capital Funding Situation3.3.1 The Shift from Small Startup Companies to Deep Pocketed Corporations3.3.2 The Shift to China and Taiwan3.3.3 Leaders and Strategies3.4 Key Points Made in this ChapterChapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for CIGS PV and its Materials4.1 Forecasting Methodology4.1.1 Data Sources4.1.2 Changes from Previous Reports4.1.3 Scope of Forecast4.1.4 Alternative Scenarios4.2 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Product Type4.2.1 Conventional Panels4.2.2 BIPV4.2.3 Other Products4.3 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Manufacturing Technology4.3.1 Forecasts by Rigid vs. Flexible Manufacturing4.3.2 Forecasts by CIGS Deposition Method4.4 Summary of ForecastsAcronyms and Abbreviations Used in this ReportAbout the Author