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Six years ago, OLED lighting was first being proposed as a serious commercial product. Back then, 2014 was projected as the year when OLED lighting would first make its impact felt on general illumination. It didn’t happen. OLED lighting has been available for four years now, but with few signs of its moving beyond the luxury and specialist lighting sector. Also, the disappearance of GE from this space is another reason to treat OLED lighting with a little less respect than it once had.So is it time to wave goodbye to OLED lighting as a large-scale business opportunity and label it “niche only?” The case can be made. But then again some large lighting suppliers remain bullish on this technology and appear to mean what they say.Also, the fate of OLED lighting remains of importance well beyond the lighting sector. Because OLED consist of large panels, their success or failure has major implications for both the OLED materials sector and the OLED market itself. Even a modest success for OLED lighting could quickly make it the largest segment of the OLED business; which would completely change the market orientation of the OLED market from one that is currently oriented towards small mobile displays.In this complex market environment, NanoMarkets believes that it is time for a detailed and honest assessment of both the current value proposition and future revenue timeframes for OLED lighting. This is the objective of this report, which includes eight-year (volume and value) projections of OLED lighting in all the major market sectors along with an assessment of how OLED lighting can effectively compete with LEDs and CFLs in those segments. In addition, this report analyzes the core strategies of leading players in the OLED lighting space, including their plans for building manufacturing capacity for OLED lighting.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive SummaryE.1 Major changes in the OLED lighting market since NanoMarkets’ 2013 reportE.2 Will OLED lighting ever be more than a luxury niche? An honest assessment.E.3 Who will shape the future of OLED lighting sector: six players to watchE.4 Geographies: Thoughts on national and regional markets for OLED lightingE.4.1 The role of China in the future of OLED lightingE.4.2 Japan: losing market share?E.4.3 Korea: the new home of OLED lighting?E.4.4 Europe: Number one in lighting design, but less concerned with environmentalismE.4.5 OLED lighting in the United StatesE.5 Opportunities for OLED lighting startupsE.6 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting MarketsE.6.1 Production capacity trendsE.6.2 Alternative revenue scenarios for OLED lightingE.7 Implications for the OLED materials sectorChapter One: Introduction1.1 Background to this new report1.2 Objectives and scope of this report1.3 Methodology and information sources1.4 Plan of this reportChapter Two: Manufacturing, Materials and Performance Trends Shaping the OLED Lighting Commercialization2.1 Performance factors shaping the OLED lighting market2.1.1 The future of OLEDs as efficient lighting2.1.2 Making OLED lighting panels bigger: prospects and current trends2.1.3 OLED lifetime trends: implications for OLED lighting2.1.4 Trends in OLED luminance and their impact on the addressable market for OLED lighting2.1.5 Color warmth2.1.6 Flexible/curved OLED lighting: do we need it?2.2 Manufacturing factors shaping the OLED lighting market2.2.1 What we know (and don’t know) about OLED yield trends2.2.2 Materials trends for OLED lighting2.2.2 Printed OLED lighting: the same old story?2.3 Expectations for OLED lighting manufacturing capacity2.3.1 Plans announced by OLED lighting firms for increased capacity2.3.2 Capital expenditure required for OLED lighting manufacturing facilities2.3.3 Eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting manufacturing capacity2.4 Standardization efforts and their importance for the future the OLED lighting market2.5 Key points from this chapterChapter Three: Addressable Markets for OLED Lighting: Actual and Potential3.1 Market forecasting methodology3.1.1 Forecasting assumptions3.2 Costs and prices for OLED lighting3.2.1 Expected cost trends for OLED panels: costs per unit and costs per lumen3.2.2 Cost and other factors impacting OLED lighting prices3.3 OLED luminaire trends: design, cost and other factors3.4 Designer and sample kits3.4.1 Do these kits have a future in a mature OLED lighting market3.4.2 Eight-year forecast of OLED lighting designer kits3.5 Office lighting3.5.1 Is office lighting the “killer app” for OLED lighting?3.5.2 Eight-year forecast of OLED office lighting3.6 OLED lighting in the home3.6.1 Is there potential for residential lighting in the home beyond luxury lighting?3.6.2 Eight-year forecast of residential OLED lighting3.7 Potential for use of OLEDs in outdoor lighting3.7.1 Encapsulation issues3.7.2 Possible outdoor uses for OLED lighting3.7.3 Eight-year forecast of non-automotive outdoor OLED lighting3.7 OLED lighting in the car and other vehicles3.7.1 Internal applications3.7.2 External applications3.7.3 Eight-year forecast of OLED automotive lighting3.8 Large-scale OLED lighting installations3.8.1 Showrooms, exhibitions and bars3.8.2 Eight-year forecast of OLEDs in large-scale installations3.9 Summary of eight-year forecasts for OLED lighting3.10 Key points from this chapterAcronyms and Abbreviations Used In this ReportAbout the Author